Abuja, 24 June 2025 – Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has made a bold prediction about Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, asserting that President Bola Tinubu has “no path to victory.” El-Rufai, now a prominent figure in the Social Democratic Party (SDP) after leaving the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), made these remarks during an interview on Arise TV’s Prime Time programme on 23 June 2025.
Speaking with host Charles Aniagolu, El-Rufai claimed that widespread dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s administration, particularly over the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, has eroded public confidence in both the president and the APC. “I have looked at the numbers and trends of the election. The president has no pathway to win; he cannot win,” El-Rufai stated, echoing sentiments he has expressed in recent months. He suggested that Nigerians are poised to vote against Tinubu in 2027, reflecting a significant shift in the political landscape.
El-Rufai’s comments come amid a reported rift with Tinubu, intensified by his defection to the SDP and his vocal leadership in a coalition aimed at challenging the APC’s dominance. During the interview, he also addressed broader national issues, including economic policies and governance, though his critique of Tinubu’s electoral prospects dominated headlines.
The former governor’s remarks have sparked varied reactions. Supporters of Tinubu, including APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, have dismissed El-Rufai’s claims, pointing to the party’s endorsement of Tinubu for a second term in May 2025 and ongoing defections from opposition parties to the APC. Critics, however, argue that El-Rufai’s analysis reflects growing public frustration with Tinubu’s reforms, which have been praised by international investors but blamed for exacerbating economic hardship.
Political analysts suggest that El-Rufai’s appearance on Prime Time signals his intent to play a central role in shaping the 2027 election narrative. His call for a potential alliance between northern and southern regions to unseat Tinubu, previously hinted at in February 2025, underscores his strategic positioning.
