A recent social media post by Kingsley Moghalu, a prominent Nigerian economist and former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, has sparked heated debate about the implications of Africa’s rapidly growing population. In his post on X, Moghalu challenged the notion that the continent’s population boom is an economic advantage, arguing instead that it risks entrenching poverty without significant improvements in economic productivity.
“Anyone who tells Africa and Africans that the population boom is creating a market is deceiving you,” Moghalu wrote. He pointed out that population growth alone does not translate into economic progress, questioning whether it is “creating factories” or viable markets when GDP per capita remains low in countries like Nigeria. He contrasted Nigeria, with a population exceeding 200 million and a GDP per capita of $1,500, with Switzerland, which has just 9 million people but a GDP per capita of $99,000.
Moghalu’s central argument is that prosperity, driven by economic productivity, matters more than sheer population size. He warned that current trends suggest Africa’s population growth could “redistribute poverty” rather than foster wealth creation, particularly if the continent continues to “born pikin” – a colloquial Nigerian phrase for having children – without addressing structural economic challenges.
The post has elicited varied responses. Some users on X agreed with Moghalu’s emphasis on productivity but criticised his use of Switzerland as an example, with one commenter calling it a “rogue homeland of dirty money” unfit to serve as a model for African nations. Others echoed Moghalu’s concerns, highlighting the need for industrialisation, education, and job creation to harness Africa’s demographic potential.
Africa’s population is projected to double by 2050, reaching 2.5 billion, according to the United Nations. This growth is often framed as a “demographic dividend” that could drive economic expansion if young people are equipped with skills and opportunities. However, Moghalu and like-minded analysts argue that without robust economic reforms, this dividend risks becoming a liability.
In Nigeria, where youth unemployment stands at over 40%, the challenges are stark. The country’s economy, heavily reliant on oil, struggles to generate enough jobs or industrial output to support its growing population. Similar patterns are evident across the continent, where many economies remain dependent on raw material exports rather than value-added industries.
Moghalu’s remarks underscore a broader call for African governments to prioritise policies that boost productivity, such as investments in manufacturing, technology, and education. Without these, he warns, the continent’s population boom may deepen economic inequality rather than alleviate it.
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