posted 2nd June 2025
Surge in Terrorism in Sahel and Nigeria Linked to US Withdrawal, Experts Say
2 June 2025, Abuja – A recent statement from General Michael Langley, commander of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM), has attributed the escalating insurgency in the Sahel and Nigeria to the withdrawal of US forces from Niger in September 2024. The exit, which ended a decade-long counter-terrorism presence, has left a security vacuum that groups like al-Qaeda and Islamic State (ISIS) affiliates are exploiting, according to Langley. This comes as suspected al-Qaeda and ISIS terrorists reportedly attacked a military base in Mali on Sunday, underscoring the growing threat in the region.
The Sahel, encompassing Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has become the epicentre of global terrorism, accounting for 19% of worldwide attacks and 51% of terrorism-related deaths in 2024, according to the 2025 Global Terrorism Index. The collapse of Libya in 2011 flooded the region with weapons and fighters, reigniting local conflicts like the Tuareg rebellion in Mali. Al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) have since expanded their reach, with JNIM controlling parts of northern and central Mali and ISGS operating in northern Burkina Faso and western Niger.
In Nigeria, particularly the North-East, Boko Haram and its splinter group, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), have intensified attacks. The Lake Chad Basin, where Nigeria borders Cameroon, Chad, and Niger, has seen a resurgence of violence, compounded by the withdrawal of international support. France ended its counter-terrorism operations in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger over the past two years, and the dissolution of the Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force (FC-G5S) has weakened regional cooperation. The US withdrawal from Niger, which included critical drone surveillance capabilities, has further hampered efforts to monitor extremist networks.
Experts point to deeper structural issues driving the crisis. Poverty, weak governance, and climate change exacerbate instability, creating fertile ground for recruitment. Military juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, which formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in 2023, have prioritised regime security over counter-terrorism, alienating local populations. In Nigeria, communal tensions and herder-farmer conflicts in states like Benue and Plateau have been exploited by extremists, with violence often misattributed to terrorism.
Sunday’s attack on a military base in Mali, suspected to involve JNIM and ISGS militants, killed several soldiers and destroyed equipment, though official details remain scarce. The assault follows a pattern of bold strikes, including the March 2024 attack on Fambita Mosque in Niger, which left 44 dead. These incidents highlight the operational freedom extremists now enjoy, particularly in Mali, where JNIM has consolidated territorial control.
In Nigeria, President Bola Tinubu’s administration has faced criticism for its handling of security challenges. Over 1,000 deaths were reported in Plateau State alone in 2024, with resurgent Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks in Borno and communal violence in Benue and Plateau. While the government has made efforts, including the arrest of four Pakistani nationals linked to arms trafficking for ISWAP and Boko Haram, critics argue these are reactive measures.
The Tinubu administration has leaned on the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), a regional coalition, to counter Boko Haram, but its effectiveness is limited by funding and coordination issues. In Benue and Plateau, where herder-farmer clashes often escalate into broader violence, the government’s response has been hampered by inadequate policing and failure to address root causes like land disputes and economic marginalisation. Posts on X reflect public frustration, with users citing “critical failures” in security under Tinubu’s leadership.
Analysts suggest a multifaceted approach to curb the rising tide of terrorism. First, regional cooperation must be revitalised. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is exploring a regional counter-terrorism force, as discussed at its July 2024 summit, but funding and political will remain obstacles. The African Union’s resolution 2719, which supports AU-led peace operations, could provide a framework for action.
Second, addressing governance and socio-economic challenges is critical. Investments in education, job creation, and climate resilience could reduce extremist recruitment. In Nigeria, resolving communal conflicts through dialogue and strengthening local security forces are urgent priorities.
Finally, international support, while scaled back, remains essential. The US and France could shift from military presence to intelligence-sharing and capacity-building, while Nigeria’s growing ties with Russia and China should be leveraged cautiously to avoid geopolitical entanglements.
General Langley warned that extremist groups are now eyeing West Africa’s coastal states, threatening broader regional stability. Without swift, coordinated action, the Sahel and Nigeria risk descending further into chaos, with devastating consequences for millions.
