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On 29 May 2025, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu delivered a statement marking the second anniversary of his administration, proclaiming what he described as “undeniable progress” under his Renewed Hope Agenda. The address painted an optimistic picture of economic stabilisation, fiscal discipline, and transformative reforms. However, a closer examination reveals a disconnect between the administration’s narrative and the lived experiences of millions of Nigerians. Whilst some progress has been made, the self-congratulatory tone glosses over persistent challenges, unfulfilled promises, and the human cost of hastily implemented policies. This article critically analyses Tinubu’s claims, questioning the depth and sustainability of the reported progress.

Tinubu’s statement highlights the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange windows as bold, necessary reforms to avert a fiscal crisis. He claims these policies have stabilised the economy, citing a reduced fiscal deficit (from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024), increased state revenues, and a rise in external reserves from $4 billion to over $23 billion by the end of 2024. These figures, if accurate, suggest some macroeconomic improvements. However, the benefits have yet to reach ordinary Nigerians.
The removal of fuel subsidies, whilst arguably necessary to curb fiscal losses, was implemented without adequate safety nets. The resultant surge in fuel prices—reportedly rising by over 200% in some regions—has driven up transport and food costs, exacerbating inflation. Tinubu claims inflation is easing, but data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that headline inflation remained above 30% for much of 2024, with food inflation peaking at 40%. The decline in rice prices he mentions is anecdotal and not reflective of broader market trends, where staple foods remain unaffordable for many households.
The unification of exchange rates, intended to eliminate arbitrage and attract investment, has led to a devalued Naira, which traded at over ₦1,500 to the dollar in late 2024, according to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reports. This devaluation has increased the cost of imported goods, further squeezing consumers and businesses reliant on foreign inputs. Whilst Tinubu highlights $8 billion in new oil and gas investments, the sector’s contribution to GDP remains below 10%, underscoring the failure to significantly diversify the economy. The claim of a 400% increase in rig counts lacks context—without baseline figures, it’s unclear how impactful this is.
Moreover, the administration’s assertion of discontinuing Ways and Means financing is questionable. Independent analysts have pointed to continued borrowing through opaque mechanisms, raising concerns about fiscal transparency. The reported drop in the debt service-to-revenue ratio (from nearly 100% in 2022 to under 40% in 2024) is commendable but overshadowed by the rising debt-to-GDP ratio (53%), driven by foreign exchange revaluation. Nigerians deserve clarity on how these debts will be serviced without further austerity measures.

Tinubu’s tax reform agenda, which he claims has raised the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10% to 13.5% in 2024, is presented as a cornerstone of economic justice. Exemptions on VAT for essentials like food, education, and healthcare, alongside the establishment of a Tax Ombudsman, are steps towards fairness. However, these reforms have been met with scepticism. Small businesses, which form the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, continue to face multiple taxation at state and local levels, despite promises to eliminate this burden. The National Single Window project, meant to streamline trade, remains in its early stages, with bureaucratic bottlenecks still hampering exporters.
The emphasis on protecting low-income households is undermined by the reality that VAT exemptions alone cannot offset the broader cost-of-living crisis. The administration’s focus on digital jobs and youth empowerment through tax incentives is promising but lacks scale. With youth unemployment hovering around 40% (per NBS data), the impact of these policies remains marginal. The claim that tax reforms are “not just about revenue but about stimulating inclusive economic growth” rings hollow when millions struggle to afford basic necessities.

Tinubu’s assertion that security has improved, particularly in the northwest, is partially true. Military operations have disrupted banditry in some areas, allowing farmers to return to their fields. However, insecurity remains a national crisis. The northeast continues to grapple with Boko Haram and ISWAP, whilst kidnapping for ransom has surged in the south. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) show over 5,000 violent incidents in 2024, with thousands of fatalities. The administration’s claim of enhanced collaboration among security agencies is not matched by a corresponding decline in crime rates or public confidence in safety.
The promise to “up the game” of security chiefs is vague and overdue. Nigerians expected more decisive action, such as overhauling the security architecture or addressing systemic corruption within the forces. The focus on military welfare is laudable, but without tackling root causes like poverty and unemployment, which fuel insecurity, these efforts are merely temporary fixes.

The Renewed Hope Agenda’s social initiatives, such as revitalising 1,000 Primary Health Centres (PHCs) and expanding health insurance coverage from 16 million to 20 million, are steps in the right direction. However, Nigeria’s healthcare system remains woefully underfunded, with per capita health spending below $15, far short of the World Health Organization’s recommended $86. Many PHCs lack basic equipment and staff, rendering upgrades ineffective. The Presidential Maternal Health Initiative’s provision of free caesarean sections to 4,000 women is a drop in the ocean for a country with over 200 million people and a maternal mortality rate among the highest globally.
Education and youth empowerment initiatives, such as the student loan scheme and MSME support, are similarly limited in scope. The loan scheme has faced bureaucratic hurdles, with fewer than 100,000 beneficiaries reported by late 2024. Meanwhile, over 10 million children remain out of school, per UNESCO estimates. The spotlight on NASENI’s innovation programmes is encouraging, but these initiatives are urban-centric and inaccessible to rural youth, who constitute a significant portion of the population.

Tinubu’s administration lists numerous road projects and investments in mechanised farming as evidence of progress. Whilst projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Second Niger Bridge Access Road are underway, many remain incomplete or mired in controversies over funding and contractor delays. The claim of “thousands of tractors” procured for agriculture lacks specificity—where are these tractors, and who benefits? Food insecurity persists, with 31.8 million Nigerians facing acute hunger in 2024, according to the Cadre Harmonisé report.
The emphasis on solid minerals as a diversification strategy is promising, but the sector’s revenue contribution remains negligible compared to oil. The “value-added policy” is yet to translate into widespread job creation or industrial growth, with artisanal miners still dominating the sector amid regulatory gaps.

Tinubu acknowledges the “bump in the cost of living” but frames it as a necessary sacrifice for long-term gains. This narrative dismisses the profound suffering of Nigerians, many of whom have slipped into multidimensional poverty. The World Bank reported that 46% of Nigerians lived below the poverty line in 2024, up from 40% in 2023, largely due to subsidy removal and currency devaluation. The administration’s social investment schemes, whilst well-intentioned, are insufficient to cushion these shocks.
The Motherland Festival and diaspora engagement initiatives, whilst culturally significant, seem out of touch when juxtaposed against the economic hardships faced by citizens. Nigerians are less concerned with global showcases than with affordable food, reliable electricity, and safe streets.
President Tinubu’s second anniversary statement is a blend of selective achievements and overstated successes. Macroeconomic indicators may show improvement, but the micro-level realities—skyrocketing living costs, persistent insecurity, and inadequate social services—tell a different story. The Renewed Hope Agenda has laid a foundation for potential growth, but its benefits are unevenly distributed and slow to materialise. The administration must move beyond rhetoric to deliver tangible relief, prioritise inclusive policies, and address systemic inefficiencies.
Nigerians deserve more than promises of a brighter future; they need evidence of it now. As Tinubu himself said, “The journey is not over.” Indeed, it has barely begun, and the road ahead demands more accountability, transparency, and empathy than this statement reflects.