June 22, 2025 – The world has entered a new era of “balance of power” politics, where might and strategic imperatives dictate international security, according to Kingsley Moghalu, a prominent global thought leader and former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria. In a recent analysis, Moghalu highlights the resurgence of power-driven geopolitics, where strategic interests—such as control over nuclear capabilities—override moral or legal considerations.
Moghalu points to historical precedents, such as the U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden, to illustrate how decisive actions by global powers shape the international order. “Power and might are seen as the only guarantee of security and containment of ‘rogue’ actors,” he notes, emphasizing that strategic imperatives now dominate global decision-making.
Speculation about whether these tensions could escalate into a third world war is widespread, but Moghalu dismisses this as improbable. He argues that major powers like Russia and China appear disinterested in direct confrontation, creating a stalemate rooted in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). “With MAD in place, only a rogue actor could trigger such a conflict,” Moghalu asserts, pointing out that no state is likely to risk annihilation.
Moghalu identifies Iran as a key player weakened by this geopolitical shift. Already strained before recent developments, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities has been a bid to assert influence. However, Moghalu suggests that Iran’s position has deteriorated further, limiting its response to asymmetric tactics rather than direct confrontation. “Iran has been fundamentally weakened,” he states, noting that its strategic options are now constrained.
Quoting Hans Morgenthau, a leading theorist of realist international relations, Moghalu underscores the pragmatic nature of global politics: “The statesman must think in terms of the national interest, conceived as power among other powers.” This perspective contrasts sharply with public sentiment, which often frames international conflicts in moralistic or legalistic terms of absolute good versus evil. Moghalu warns that such oversimplifications fail to capture the nuanced calculations driving state actions.
As the balance of power reasserts itself, the international community faces a complex landscape where strategic interests and power dynamics dictate outcomes. While the risk of global conflict remains low, the containment of rogue actors and the control of nuclear proliferation will continue to shape diplomatic and military strategies. Moghalu’s analysis serves as a sobering reminder that in this new era, national interest and power will remain the cornerstones of global stability.
